After a long a grueling primary season, and an even longer and more grueling general election campaign, the midterm election will happen tomorrow, on Tuesday, November 6th. I neglected my duties by having primary summaries posted only this very day, so I’m putting up an overview of possible outcomes in each set of races (House, Senate, governor) today as well.
House
For the first time since 2008, Democrats are poised to win a majority in the House of Representatives. In midterm elections, voters tend to swing against the presidential party, and that’s what’s expected to happen this year. President Trump’s low approval rating, actions on immigration, vilification of the press, and long record of lies and racially tinged remarks are likely to come back and hurt this party. Outrage, frustration, and dissatisfaction with the nation’s current state of affairs are encouraging voters to cast their ballots for the blue team. According to electoral forecasters and analysts, Democrats are favored to gain ground in suburban seats that swung against Trump and also in whiter and more working-class districts that were won by both Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The current breakdown in the House is 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 7 vacancies (5 Republican-held seats and 2 Democratic-held ones). Below I’ll go state-by-state and explore possible outcomes. The range of expected outcomes is based on ratings from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/). Any races rated as anything less than “safe” for the incumbent party is taken into account. The party in parentheses is the party that either holds that seat currently or held it most recently. Since Democrats are the challenging party, net changes in their favor will be at the top end of possible outcomes.
Alabama
Current delegation: 6R, 1D
Competitive races: none
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Alaska
Current delegation: 1R, 0D
Competitive races: AK-AL (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Arizona
Current delegation: 5R, 4D
Competitive races: AZ-1 (D), AZ-2 (R), AZ-6 (R), AZ-8 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +3D/-3R
Arkansas
Current delegation: 4R, 0D
Competitive races: AR-2 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
California
Current delegation: 39R, 14D
Competitive races: CA-4 (R), CA-7 (D), CA-10 (R), CA-16 (D), CA-21 (R), CA-22 (R), CA-24 (D), CA-25 (R), CA-39 (R), CA-45 (R), CA-48 (R), CA-49 (R), CA-50 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: -3D/+3R to +10D/-10R
Colorado
Current delegation: 4R, 3D
Competitive races: CO-3 (R), and CO-6 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R
Connecticut
Current delegation: 5D, 0R
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Delaware
Current delegation: 1D, 0R
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Florida
Current delegation: 15R, 11D, 1 vacancy (R)
Competitive races: FL-6 (R), FL-7 (D), FL-15 (R), FL-16 (R), FL-18 (R), FL-25 (R), FL-26 (R), FL-27 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +7D/-7R
Georgia
Current delegation: 10R, 4D
Competitive races: GA-6 (R), GA-7 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R
Hawaii
Current delegation: 2D, 0R
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Idaho
Current delegation: 2R, 0D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Illinois
Current delegation: 11D, 7R
Competitive races: IL-6 (R), IL-12 (R), IL-13 (R), IL-14 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +4D/-4R
Indiana
Current delegation: 7R, 2D
Competitive races: IN-2 (R), IN-9 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R
Iowa
Current delegation: 3R, 1D
Competitive races: IA-1 (R), IA-3 (R), IA-4 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +3D/-3R
Kansas
Current delegation: 4R, 0D
Competitive races: KS-2 (R), KS-3 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R
Kentucky
Current delegation: 5R, 1D
Competitive races: KY-6 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Louisiana
Current delegation: 5R, 1D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Maine
Current delegation: 1R, 1D
Competitive races: ME-2 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Maryland
Current delegation: 7D, 1R
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Massachusetts
Current delegation: 9R, 0D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Michigan
Current delegation: 9R, 4D, 1 vacancy (D)
Competitive races: MI-1 (R), MI-2 (R), MI-3 (R), MI-6 (R), MI-7 (R), MI-8 (R), MI-11 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +7D/-7R
Minnesota
Current delegation: 5D, 3R
Competitive races: MN-1 (D), MN-2 (R), MN-3 (R), MN-7 (D), MN-8 (D)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R
Mississippi
Current delegation: 3R, 1D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Missouri
Current delegation: 6R, 2D
Competitive races: MO-2 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Montana
Current delegation: 1R, 0D
Competitive races: MT-AL (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Nebraska
Current delegation: 3R, 0D
Competitive races: NE-2 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Nevada
Current delegation: 3D, 1R
Competitive races: NV-3 (D), NV-4
Range of expected outcomes: -2D/+2R to NO CHANGE
New Hampshire
Current delegation: 2D, 0R
Competitive races: NH-1 (D)
Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to NO CHANGE
New Jersey
Current delegation: 7D, 5R
Competitive races: NJ-2 (R), NJ-3 (R), NJ-5 (D), NJ-7 (R), NJ-11 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +4D/-4R
New Mexico
Current delegation: 2D, 1R
Competitive races: NM-2 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
New York
Current delegation: 17D, 9R, 1 vacancy (D)
Competitive races: NY-1 (R), NY-2 (R), NY-11 (R), NY-18 (D), NY-19 (R), NY-21 (R), NY-22 (R), NY-23 (R), NY-24 (R), NY-27 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +9D/-9R
North Carolina
Current delegation: 10R, 3D
Competitive races: NC-2 (R), NC-8 (R), NC-9 (R), NC-13 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +4D/-4R
North Dakota
Current delegation: 1R, 0D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Ohio
Current delegation: 12R, 4D
Competitive races: OH-1 (R), OH-7 (R), OH-10 (R), OH-12 (R), OH-14 (R), OH-15 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +6D/-6R
Oklahoma
Current delegation: 5R, 0D
Competitive races: OK-5 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Oregon
Current delegation: 4D, 1R
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania underwent court-ordered redistricting, so not all new districts match the old ones or have incumbents
Current delegation: 10R, 6D, 2 vacancies (R)
Competitive races: PA-1 (R), PA-7 (R), PA-8 (D), PA-10 (R), PA-16 (R), PA-17 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: +1D/-1R to +6D/-6R
Rhode Island
Current delegation: 2D, 0R
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
South Carolina
Current delegation: 6R, 1D
Competitive races: SC-1 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
South Dakota
Current delegation: 1R, 0D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Tennessee
Current delegation: 7R, 2D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Texas
Current delegation: 25R, 11D
Competitive races: TX-2 (R), TX-6 (R), TX-7 (R), TX-21 (R), TX-22 (R), TX-23 (R), TX-31 (R), TX-32 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +8D/-8R
Utah
Current delegation: 4R, 0D
Competitive races: UT-4
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R
Vermont
Current delegation: 1D, 0R
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
Virginia
Current delegation: 7R, 4D
Competitive races: VA-2 (R), VA-5 (R), VA-7 (R), VA-10 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +4D/-4R
Washington
Current delegation: 6D, 4R
Competitive races: WA-3 (R), WA-5 (R), WA-8 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +3D/-3R
West Virginia
Current delegation: 3R, 0D
Competitive races: WV-2 (R), WV-3 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R
Wisconsin
Current delegation: 5R, 3D
Competitive races: WI-1 (R), WI-6 (R)
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R
Wyoming
Current delegation: 1R, 0D
Competitive races: NONE
Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE
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Obviously, the full range of possibilities, from a Republican net gain of 15 seats to a Democratic net gain of 107 seats, encompasses many unlikely outcomes. But the range shows that Democrats have many more winning combinations of districts than do Republicans. According to FiveThirtyEight’s statistical House forecast model, the average predicted change was a net Democratic gain of 39 seats, the median predicted change was a net Democratic gain of 38 seats, and the single outcome with the highest probability was a net Democratic gain of 37 seats. FiveThirtyEight also puts net Democratic gains from 21 to 59 seats in an 80% confidence interval, meaning there’s an 80% change the outcome will be in that range. Overall, Democrats should feel confident about their chances of flipping the House but understand that there’s still the possibility they just won’t be able to pull it off. If they do win, it would be the first time they’ve taken over a chamber of Congress since 2006, when they gained 33 seats House and six in the Senate.