Part IX picks up right where Part VIII left off. I’ll note competitive general election races with a (!), races in which the party’s preferred or expected candidate won with an (X), and incumbents with an asterisk. I’ll skip over executive offices other than governor and may have to upload this piece in several installments. With so much to look at, I’ll keep the analysis to a minimum and leave out safe House races in large states. Only nominees will be noted as mentioning competitors takes up way too much space.
Part IX: Early August
Hawaii (Gov, Sen, House, August 11th): In terms of its congressional delegation and state legislative control, Hawaii is the bluest state in the union. Its delegation is fully Democratic, and Republicans have no members in the state senate and a five-member caucus in the 50-member state house. The biggest race to watch here was the Democratic primary for governor, where Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1) challenged Gov. David Ige (D-HI) amid his falling approval rating and a false missile alert.
Results: Gov: David Ige* (D/X) and Andria Tupola (R). Sen: Mazie Hirono* (D/X) and Ron Curtis (R). House: HI-1: Ed Case (D) and Cam Cavasso (R/X). HI-2: Tulsi Gabbard* (D/X) and Brian Evans (R/X).
Minnesota (Gov, Sen, House, August 14th): Minnesota is the other state, along with Mississippi, that has a double-barreled Senate election. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is up for a third term, and appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) who replaced Al Franken (D-MN) in January, is up for a special election for the final two years of Franken’s term. Fully half of its House delegation, two Republican-held and two Democratic-held districts, is vulnerable to flipping.
Results: Gov (!): Tim Walz (D) and Jeff Johnson (R). Sen-A: Amy Klobuchar* (D/X) and Jim Newberger (R/X). Sen-B (!): Tina Smith* (D/X) and Karin Housley (R/X). House (!): MN-1: Dan Feehan (D/X) and Jim Hagedorn (R/X). MN-2: Jason Lewis* (R/X) and Angie Craig (D/X). MN-3: Erik Paulsen* (R/X) and Dean Phillips (D/X). MN-8: Joe Radinovich (D) and Pete Stauber (R/X).
Wisconsin (Gov, Sen, House, August 14th): Like Minnesota, Wisconsin is a state won twice by Barack Obama and once by Donald Trump. Unlike Minnesota, Wisconsin has a majority-Republican congressional delegation with fewer seats likely to flip. However, incumbent Gov. Scott Walker, infamous for his weakening of unions in the state, is in the race of his life. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) was thought to be vulnerable, but it’s not showing.
Results: Gov (!): Scott Walker* (R/X) and Tony Evers (D/X). Sen: Tammy Baldwin* (D/X) and Leah Vukmir (R). House: 4 incumbent Republicans and 3 incumbent Democrats were easily renominated. WI-1 (!): Randy Bryce (D) and Bryan Steil. WI-4: Gwen Moore* (D/X) and Tim Rogers (R). WI-6 (!): Glenn Grothman* (R/X) and Dan Kohl (D/X). WI-7: Sean Duffy* (R/X) and Margaret Engebretson (D).
Connecticut (Gov, Sen, House, August 14th): New England is known these days for its blue lean at the presidential level, but Connecticut has remained competitive at lower levels. Unpopular Gov. Dan Malloy (D-CT) has both dragged down his party in the state legislature and caused uncertainty as to which party his successor will be. The governor’s seat is one of the only Democratic-held ones.
Results: Gov (!): Ned Lamont (D/X) and Bob Stefanowski (R). Sen: Christopher Murphy* (D/X) and Matthew Corey (R/X). House: CT-1: John Larson* (D/X) and Jennifer Nye (R/X). CT-2: Joe Courtney* (D/X) and Danny Postemski (R/X). CT-3: Rosa DeLauro* (D/X) and Angel Cadena (R/X). CT-4: Jim Himes* (D/X) and Harry Arora (R/X). CT-5: Jahana Hayes (D/X) and Manny Santos (R/X).
Vermont (Gov, Sen, House, August 14th): Vermont is nearly as blue as Hawaii, and yet it still continues in the tradition of electing moderate or even liberal Republican voters. Therefore, Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) is expected to virtually cruise to re-election alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Sanders, like Maine Sen. Angus King (I-ME), is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats and is the most popular politician among his own constituents, according to polls.
Results: Gov (!): Phil Scott* (R/X) and Christine Hallquist (D). Sen: Bernie Sanders* (I/X) and Brooke Paige (R [withdrew, replaced by Lawrence Zupan]). House: VT-AL: Peter Welch* (D/X) and Brooke Paige (R [withdrew, replaced by Anya Tynio]).