Part VIII continues right where Part VII left off. I’ll note competitive general election races with a (!), races in which the party’s preferred or expected candidate won with an (X), and incumbents with an asterisk. I’ll skip over executive offices other than governor and may have to upload this piece in several installments. With so much to look at, I’ll keep the analysis to a minimum and leave out safe House races in large states. Only nominees will be noted as mentioning competitors takes up way too much space.
Part VIII: August 7th
Ohio (House special): This election was held when Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH-12) resigned to take a position at the Ohio Business Roundtable. Ohio’s 12th District had been solidly Republican for decades, but Democratic enthusiasm and suburban voters made this race close. Both new Rep. Troy Balderson (R-OH-12) and Danny O’Connor (D) will return to face off in the regular general election.
Results: Troy Balderson (R) 50%, Danny O’Connor (D) 49%.
Kansas (Gov, House): It has been said that Kansas is actually a three-party state. It has Democrats, moderate Republicans, and conservative Republicans. After two terms of Gov. Sam Brownback (R-KS)’s failed economic policy, voters, including many Republicans, are itching for change. There are no Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation, but as Hillary Clinton won the 3rd District and Democrat Paul Davis carried the 2nd in his gubernatorial bid, that might change.
Results: Gov (!): Kris Kobach (R) and Laura Kelly (D). House: KS-1: Roger Marshall* (R/X) and Alan LaPolice. KS-2 (!): Paul Davis (D/X) and Steve Watkins (R). KS-3 (!): Kevin Yoder* (R/X) and Sharice Davids. KS-4: Ron Estes* (R/X) and James Thompson (D/X).
Michigan (Gov, Sen, House): Michigan was a big part of the Democratic “blue wall” until President Trump shattered it with his 2016 victory, carrying the state by only about 10,000 votes. However, Barack Obama won Michigan twice, and it’s still fundamentally bluer than the nation as a whole. Democrats are poised to retake the governor’s mansion, and Sen. Debbie Stabenow is heavily favored to win a fourth term.
Results: Gov (!): Gretchen Whitmer (D/X) and Bill Schuette (R/X). Sen: Debbie Stabenow* (D/X) and John James (R). House: 8 incumbent Republicans and 3 incumbent Democrats easily won renomination. Democratic challengers in Districts 2, 3, 4, 7, and 8 were easily nominated. MI-6 (!): Fred Upton* (R/X) and Matt Longjohn (D). MI-8 (!) Mike Bishop* (R/X) and Elissa Slotkin (D/X). MI-9: Andy Levin (D) and Candius Stearns (R/X). MI-11 (!): Haley Stevens (D) and Lena Epstein (R). MI-13: Rashida Tlaib (D) and Brenda Jones (D/special).
Missouri (Sen, House): Missouri is yet another one of the states where a Democratic incumbent senator faces re-election two years after President Trump won with a double digit margin, but unlike the others, it was more recently competitive at the presidential level. John McCain beat Barack Obama here by only 3,000 votes, and Democratic strength down-ballot, while decreasing, may yet endure.
Results: Sen (!): Claire McCaskill* (D/X) and Josh Hawley (R/X). House: 1 incumbent Democrat and 6 incumbent Republicans easily won renomination. Democratic challengers in Districts 3 and 8 were easily nominated, as was a Republican in District 5. MO-1: William Lacy Clay* (D/X) and Robert Vroman (R). MO-2 (!) Ann Wagner* (R/X) and Cort VanOstran (D). MO-4: Vicky Hartzler* (R/X) and Renee Hoagenson (D). MO-6: Sam Graves* (R/X) and Henry Martin (D). MO-7: Billy Long* (R/X) and Jamie Schoolcraft.
Washington (Sen, House): Like California, Washington has a top-two primary system where the two candidates with the most votes move on to the general election. It also has a suburban House seat with a retiring Republican incumbent that was carried by Hillary Clinton. Once again, the challenge is for both parties to avoid any lockouts.
Results: Sen: Maria Cantwell* (D/X) and Susan Hutchison (R). House: 6 incumbent Democrats and one incumbent Republican were easily renominated. WA-3 (!) Jaime Herrera Beutler* (R/X) and Carolyn Long (D). WA-5 (!): Cathy McMorris Rodgers* (R/X) and Lisa Brown (D). WA-8 (!): Dino Rossi (R/X) and Kim Schrier. Lockouts: WA-2 (D/Libertarian) and WA-9 (D/D).