Today is October 23rd, which means that the midterm elections will be in two weeks. Election Day is soon to be upon us! Followers of this site know that I posted articles covering primaries in the first 13 states to hold them. However, by the time Part III of this series was up, it was already a week into summer break. I realized that since most states held their primaries during that time, and I was about to leave the country for seven weeks, it would be too exhaustive to attempt to cover them as they happened. As Vector’s third year finally kicked into gear, I decided to take a quick pass at covering the remaining 37 states’ primaries, so that that roundup was out there before the general elections actually happened. Since there are so many elections in this group, I’m going to keep notes about each as brief as possible. They have been grouped by date. I’ll note competitive general election races with a (!), races in which the party’s preferred or expected candidate won with an (X), and incumbents with an asterisk. I’ll skip over executive offices other than governor and may have to upload this piece in several installments. With so much to look at, I’ll keep the analysis to a minimum and leave out safe House races in large states. Only nominees will be noted as mentioning competitors takes up way too much space.
Part IV: June 5th
California (Gov, Sen, House): California has an unusual top-two primary system in which all candidates running for an office appear on the same ballot, and the two candidates that receive the most votes continue on to the general election. Each party’s goal is to ensure that there are no races with no candidates from that party, known as lockouts. Although California has been a Democratic stronghold, it has plenty of competitive House races.
Results: Gov: Gavin Newsom (D/X) and John Cox (R/X). Sen: Diane Feinstein* (D/X) and Kevin de Léon (D/X). Key House races (!): CA-10: Jeff Denham* (R/X) and Josh Harder (D). CA-21: TJ Cox (D/X) and David Valadao* (R/X). CA-25: Steve Knight* (R/X) and Katie Hill (D). CA-39: Young Kim (R/X) and Gil Cisneros (D). CA-45: Mimi Walters* (R/X) and Katie Porter (D). CA-48: Dana Rohrabacher* (R/X) and Harley Rouda (D). CA-49: Diane Harkey (R/X) and Mike Levin (D). CA-50: Duncan Hunter* (R/indicted) and Anmar Campa-Najjar (D). Lockouts: CA-6 (D/D), CA-8 (R/R), CA-27 (D/D), and CA-44 (D/D).
New Jersey (Sen, House): Since 1992, New Jersey has functioned as part of the Democratic “blue wall,” but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t hot races to look at. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) recently underwent a grueling federal corruption trial, although he was acquitted. This left him vulnerable to a primary challenge. Additionally, New Jersey has the one of the highest proportions of any state of competitive House races relative to its total delegation.
Results: Sen (!): Robert Menendez (D/X) and Bob Hugin (R). Key House races (!): NJ-2: Jeff van Drew (D/X) and Seth Grossman (R). NJ-3: Tom MacArthur* (R/X) and Andy Kim (D/X). NJ-7: Leonard Lance* (R/X) and Tom Malinowski (D/X). NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D/X) and Jay Webber (R).
Mississippi (Sen, House): Mississippi has only been a solidly Republican state for eight years, but at least in terms of regular federal races, there’s essentially nothing to look at in the primaries. A potential barnburner to see here is the officially nonpartisan special Senate primary to fill Thad Cochran (R-MS)’s seat. He resigned this spring citing health concerns, and his appointed replacement Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) will face off against former Rep. and Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy (D) and state senator Chris McDaniel in a blanket primary on the day of the general election in November. If no one takes a majority of the vote then, there will be a runoff in December.
Results: Sen: Howard Sherman (D) and David Baria (D/X) headed to a runoff; Roger Wicker* was renominated. House: primaries in Districts 1, 2, and 4 were uncontested. MS-3: Michael Evans (D); Michael Guest (R) and Whit Hughes (R) headed to a runoff.
Iowa (Gov, House): Iowa is one of several key Midwestern states that flipped from Obama to Trump that helped the president win in 2016. In spite of this, special elections and polls show that Iowans are prepared to revert to their earlier tendencies. At this point, all three Republicans in the state’s house delegation face at least somewhat competitive races, and Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) is trying to win election after succeeding Terry Branstad (R-IA) as governor following his appointment as ambassador to China.
Results: Gov: Kim Reynolds* (R-IA) and Fred Hubbell (D). House: IA-1 (!): Rod Blum* (R/X) and Abby Finkenauer (D/X). IA-2: Dave Loebsack* (D/X) and Christopher Peters (R). IA-3 (!): David Young* (R) and Cindy Axne (D). IA-4 (!): Steve King* (R/X) and JD Scholten (D).
Alabama (Gov, House): Like Mississippi, Alabama has only been under full Republican Control for eight years, but unlike Mississippi, Alabama has already had a rollercoaster of a special Senate election which resulted in the victory of Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) to replace Jeff Sessions (R-AL) after his appointment as US Attorney General. Additionally, Alabama has a successor governor, Kay Ivey (R-AL) attempting to win election in her own right. Ivey rose to her position after the resignation of Robert Bentley (R-AL) amid a sex scandal.
Results: Gov: Kay Ivey* (R/X) and Walt Maddox (D). House: primaries in Districts 6, and 7 were uncontested. AL-1: Bradley Byrne* (R) and Robert Kennedy (D/no, not that one). AL-2: Tabitha Isner (D); Martha Roby* (R) and Bobby Bright (R) headed to a runoff. AL-3: Mike Rogers* (R/X) and Mallory Hagan (D). AL-4: Robert Aderholt* (R) and Lee Auman (D). AL-5: Mo Brooks* (R/X) and Peter Joffrion (D). AL-6: Gary Palmer* (R/X) and Danner Kline (D). AL-7: Terri Sewell* (D/X).
New Mexico (Gov, Sen, House): New Mexico is one of several states won by both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton but with a Republican governor. The governor’s seat is being vacated by Susana Martinez (R-NM), who is term-limited. Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM-2)’s seat has become competitive as he has given it up to run for governor, and Rep. Michelle Luján Grisham also gave up her seat for the same reason.
Results: Gov: Michelle Luján Grisham (D/X) and Steve Pearce (R). Sen: Martin Heinrich* (D) and Mark Rich (R), although Gary Johnson (Libertarian) declared over the summer. House: NM-1: Debra Haaland (D) and Janice Arnold-Jones (R/X). NM-2 (!): Xochitl Torres Small (D/X) and Yvette Herrell (R/X). NM-3: Ben Ray Luján* (D/X) and Jerald Steve McFall (R/X).
Montana (Sen, House): Montana is one of a handful of states that was won by President Trump by a double-digit margin that also has an incumbent Democratic senator. Jon Tester (D-MT) was last elected with a plurality of the vote at the same time Barack Obama was badly losing the state. This means that Montanans will have to choose between keeping a popular incumbent and supporting the president in every way possible. At the same time, Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT), who was notoriously elected in a special election last May after body-slamming a Guardian reporter, is up for election to a full term.
Results: Sen (!): Jon Tester* (D/X) and Matt Rosendale (R). House (!): MT-AL: Greg Gianforte* (R/X) and Kathleen Williams (D).
South Dakota (Gov, House): On the presidential level, South Dakota has been one of the least competitive states, having not voted for a Democrat since 1964. The same holds true on the gubernatorial level: South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974. That may change this year as Billie Sutton (D-SD), the minority leader of the state senate, is running on an anti-abortion, pro-gun platform. Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD-AL) is retiring to run for governor.
Results: Gov (!): Billie Sutton (D/X) and Kristi Noem (R). House: Tim Bjorkman (D/X) and Dusty Johnson (R).