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Midterm Outlook: House

After a long a grueling primary season, and an even longer and more grueling general election campaign, the midterm election will happen tomorrow, on Tuesday, November 6th. I neglected my duties by having primary summaries posted only this very day, so I’m putting up an overview of possible outcomes in each set of races (House, Senate, governor) today as well.

House

For the first time since 2008, Democrats are poised to win a majority in the House of Representatives. In midterm elections, voters tend to swing against the presidential party, and that’s what’s expected to happen this year. President Trump’s low approval rating, actions on immigration, vilification of the press, and long record of lies and racially tinged remarks are likely to come back and hurt this party. Outrage, frustration, and dissatisfaction with the nation’s current state of affairs are encouraging voters to cast their ballots for the blue team. According to electoral forecasters and analysts, Democrats are favored to gain ground in suburban seats that swung against Trump and also in whiter and more working-class districts that were won by both Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The current breakdown in the House is 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 7 vacancies (5 Republican-held seats and 2 Democratic-held ones). Below I’ll go state-by-state and explore possible outcomes. The range of expected outcomes is based on ratings from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/). Any races rated as anything less than “safe” for the incumbent party is taken into account. The party in parentheses is the party that either holds that seat currently or held it most recently. Since Democrats are the challenging party, net changes in their favor will be at the top end of possible outcomes.

Alabama

  • Current delegation: 6R, 1D

  • Competitive races: none

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Alaska

  • Current delegation: 1R, 0D

  • Competitive races: AK-AL (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Arizona

  • Current delegation: 5R, 4D

  • Competitive races: AZ-1 (D), AZ-2 (R), AZ-6 (R), AZ-8 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +3D/-3R

Arkansas

  • Current delegation: 4R, 0D

  • Competitive races: AR-2 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

California

  • Current delegation: 39R, 14D

  • Competitive races: CA-4 (R), CA-7 (D), CA-10 (R), CA-16 (D), CA-21 (R), CA-22 (R), CA-24 (D), CA-25 (R), CA-39 (R), CA-45 (R), CA-48 (R), CA-49 (R), CA-50 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: -3D/+3R to +10D/-10R

Colorado

  • Current delegation: 4R, 3D

  • Competitive races: CO-3 (R), and CO-6 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R

Connecticut

  • Current delegation: 5D, 0R

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Delaware

  • Current delegation: 1D, 0R

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Florida

  • Current delegation: 15R, 11D, 1 vacancy (R)

  • Competitive races: FL-6 (R), FL-7 (D), FL-15 (R), FL-16 (R), FL-18 (R), FL-25 (R), FL-26 (R), FL-27 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +7D/-7R

Georgia

  • Current delegation: 10R, 4D

  • Competitive races: GA-6 (R), GA-7 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R

Hawaii

  • Current delegation: 2D, 0R

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Idaho

  • Current delegation: 2R, 0D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Illinois

  • Current delegation: 11D, 7R

  • Competitive races: IL-6 (R), IL-12 (R), IL-13 (R), IL-14 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +4D/-4R

Indiana

  • Current delegation: 7R, 2D

  • Competitive races: IN-2 (R), IN-9 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R

Iowa

  • Current delegation: 3R, 1D

  • Competitive races: IA-1 (R), IA-3 (R), IA-4 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +3D/-3R

Kansas

  • Current delegation: 4R, 0D

  • Competitive races: KS-2 (R), KS-3 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R

Kentucky

  • Current delegation: 5R, 1D

  • Competitive races: KY-6 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Louisiana

  • Current delegation: 5R, 1D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Maine

  • Current delegation: 1R, 1D

  • Competitive races: ME-2 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Maryland

  • Current delegation: 7D, 1R

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Massachusetts

  • Current delegation: 9R, 0D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Michigan

  • Current delegation: 9R, 4D, 1 vacancy (D)

  • Competitive races: MI-1 (R), MI-2 (R), MI-3 (R), MI-6 (R), MI-7 (R), MI-8 (R), MI-11 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +7D/-7R

Minnesota

  • Current delegation: 5D, 3R

  • Competitive races: MN-1 (D), MN-2 (R), MN-3 (R), MN-7 (D), MN-8 (D)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R

Mississippi

  • Current delegation: 3R, 1D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Missouri

  • Current delegation: 6R, 2D

  • Competitive races: MO-2 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Montana

  • Current delegation: 1R, 0D

  • Competitive races: MT-AL (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Nebraska

  • Current delegation: 3R, 0D

  • Competitive races: NE-2 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Nevada

  • Current delegation: 3D, 1R

  • Competitive races: NV-3 (D), NV-4

  • Range of expected outcomes: -2D/+2R to NO CHANGE

New Hampshire

  • Current delegation: 2D, 0R

  • Competitive races: NH-1 (D)

  • Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to NO CHANGE

New Jersey

  • Current delegation: 7D, 5R

  • Competitive races: NJ-2 (R), NJ-3 (R), NJ-5 (D), NJ-7 (R), NJ-11 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +4D/-4R

New Mexico

  • Current delegation: 2D, 1R

  • Competitive races: NM-2 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

New York

  • Current delegation: 17D, 9R, 1 vacancy (D)

  • Competitive races: NY-1 (R), NY-2 (R), NY-11 (R), NY-18 (D), NY-19 (R), NY-21 (R), NY-22 (R), NY-23 (R), NY-24 (R), NY-27 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: -1D/+1R to +9D/-9R

North Carolina

  • Current delegation: 10R, 3D

  • Competitive races: NC-2 (R), NC-8 (R), NC-9 (R), NC-13 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +4D/-4R

North Dakota

  • Current delegation: 1R, 0D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Ohio

  • Current delegation: 12R, 4D

  • Competitive races: OH-1 (R), OH-7 (R), OH-10 (R), OH-12 (R), OH-14 (R), OH-15 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +6D/-6R

Oklahoma

  • Current delegation: 5R, 0D

  • Competitive races: OK-5 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Oregon

  • Current delegation: 4D, 1R

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania underwent court-ordered redistricting, so not all new districts match the old ones or have incumbents

  • Current delegation: 10R, 6D, 2 vacancies (R)

  • Competitive races: PA-1 (R), PA-7 (R), PA-8 (D), PA-10 (R), PA-16 (R), PA-17 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: +1D/-1R to +6D/-6R

Rhode Island

  • Current delegation: 2D, 0R

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

South Carolina

  • Current delegation: 6R, 1D

  • Competitive races: SC-1 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

South Dakota

  • Current delegation: 1R, 0D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Tennessee

  • Current delegation: 7R, 2D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Texas

  • Current delegation: 25R, 11D

  • Competitive races: TX-2 (R), TX-6 (R), TX-7 (R), TX-21 (R), TX-22 (R), TX-23 (R), TX-31 (R), TX-32 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +8D/-8R

Utah

  • Current delegation: 4R, 0D

  • Competitive races: UT-4

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +1D/-1R

Vermont

  • Current delegation: 1D, 0R

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

Virginia

  • Current delegation: 7R, 4D

  • Competitive races: VA-2 (R), VA-5 (R), VA-7 (R), VA-10 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +4D/-4R

Washington

  • Current delegation: 6D, 4R

  • Competitive races: WA-3 (R), WA-5 (R), WA-8 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +3D/-3R

West Virginia

  • Current delegation: 3R, 0D

  • Competitive races: WV-2 (R), WV-3 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R

Wisconsin

  • Current delegation: 5R, 3D

  • Competitive races: WI-1 (R), WI-6 (R)

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE to +2D/-2R

Wyoming

  • Current delegation: 1R, 0D

  • Competitive races: NONE

  • Range of expected outcomes: NO CHANGE

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Obviously, the full range of possibilities, from a Republican net gain of 15 seats to a Democratic net gain of 107 seats, encompasses many unlikely outcomes. But the range shows that Democrats have many more winning combinations of districts than do Republicans. According to FiveThirtyEight’s statistical House forecast model, the average predicted change was a net Democratic gain of 39 seats, the median predicted change was a net Democratic gain of 38 seats, and the single outcome with the highest probability was a net Democratic gain of 37 seats. FiveThirtyEight also puts net Democratic gains from 21 to 59 seats in an 80% confidence interval, meaning there’s an 80% change the outcome will be in that range. Overall, Democrats should feel confident about their chances of flipping the House but understand that there’s still the possibility they just won’t be able to pull it off. If they do win, it would be the first time they’ve taken over a chamber of Congress since 2006, when they gained 33 seats House and six in the Senate.

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